Macedonia A Conflict Analysis

Lars Jerker Lock
The purpose of this conflict analysis is to the assess to the short-term risks of renewed, large-scale inter-ethnic violence in Macedonia. Events during the period January 2001-May 2003, and their possible impact on conflict dimensions in the country, are in main focus in this study. From international, national, and local perspectives critical developments in the areas of security, politics, and socio-economy are identified and discussed. The risk profile thus outlined forms the basis for three different conflict scenarios.