The report, which was partly financed by Sida, was introduced by Andrew Mack, main-author and Director of the Human Security Research Project , Samuel Fraser University. He said that economic development is a powerful long-term form of conflict prevention, and the dramatic upsurge of international activism directed at stopping and preventing wars has been a major driver of the post- Cold War decline in conflict numbers:
“There is a rising tide of democratization globally; around 60% of the world’s countries are democracies today. The more interdependency there is between countries, the less likely they are to go to war with each other. Also, the soaring international activism makes an impact. Both UN and non-UN peace keeping organizations have more than doubled since the end of the cold war, and the number of countries that contribute troops to peace-keeping missions have increased substantially. The international community is playing an important role. Even in controversial cases like when the US took the decision to go to war in Iraq, it did so only after having spent big efforts trying to gain consent and persuade the UN, also shows the significance of the international community.”
The report also points at a correlation between increase in GDP per capita and decrease in state based conflict. In East Asia the GDP roughly doubled after 1979, while the conflict numbers nearly halved. Up until then, the cold war security dynamics overwhelmed the conflict reducing effect of rising incomes.
Wars are less deadly
Andrew Mack explained that the nature of warfare has changed, with less military intervention in conflicts and importantly; peacetime health interventions save life in wartime. Humanitarian assistance has tripled since end of cold war, and the infant mortality has declined in wartime in 90% of the cases, thanks to health interventions during times of peace.
New threats
Not all the trends found in the report are positive.
“While the international wars and civil wars have declined dramatically, the deadliness in conflicts has declined and the GDP and the democratization are still increasing globally, there are new threats to consider. If we look at four out of the five deadliest conflicts today, they involve Islamist insurgents. Over 25% of the conflicts started between 2004 and 2008 have been associated by Islamist political violence. The impact of the global economic crisis on developing countries could increase the risk of political instability and thus war, and wars have become more difficult to bring to an end” said Andrew Mack.
How can donors promote peace?
Ewa Werner Dahlin, Acting Head of the Department for Co-operation with countries in conflict and post-conflict, said that the UN peacekeeping missions have become increasingly multi-dimensional, and include state-building elements like elections and the rule of law. This is positive progress, said Eva Werner-Dahlin. As for the bilateral donors, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration and security sector reform are increasingly included in Sida’s and other donors’ country strategies.
She continued:
“It is not just about financing, but also about political will. To address the importance of impunity and reconciliation, the international criminal court (ICC) is very important, and the ICC should be involved much more. In terms of peace building missions the UN need to include and coordinate more with regional organizations, the EU and international NGO’s. Other important instruments for peace-promotion are multi-donor trust funds, create space through dialogue and involve more actors.”
There is a need to challenge the report’s narrow definitions of war and peace
Petra Tötterman Andorff from the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom pointed out the importance of the report, that it plays an important role to help us learn about and understand the causes of peace, and make them into policy. But she found the report defines war and peace in their narrowest senses, and suggested that the peace-movement must challenge the relevance of these definitions.
“During the last 50 years, more women and girls have died just because they are female, than the total amount of men who have died as a result of conflicts and wars during the 20th century. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program datasets, a conflict is deemed to have occurred if the fighting results in at least 25 battle deaths in a given year. At the same time, 14 000 women die from domestic violence every year, in Russia alone.”
Wars and conflicts bring suffering to the whole population, but violence affects men and women differently. It is problematic to analyze conflicts without including a gender perspective, since it means that the conclusions will not provide a solution to many of the security problems on the ground. Recent reports from DR Congo state that rape and sexual torture are used as a strategy of war.
“Rape and sexual torture are used as military strategy, and they cause death. But according to this report, these deaths do not fall under the category of ‘direct deaths’” said Petra Tötterman-Andorff.
Work in post-conflict countries give visible results
At a panel-discussion, the Moderator, Åsa Wallton asked the panelists: Given that conflicts and causalities caused by conflict decline, why do donors increasingly focus on conflict post-conflict countries? First and foremost the panelists agreed it is something which is decided by politicians.
“Visibility. It is easy to see results, you see what you get for your investments when you work in conflict- or post-conflict countries” said Ewa Werner Dahlin
Also, since so many conflicts have come to an end, it is crucial to work in post-conflict countries to prevent conflicts from re-occuring.
The panelists agreed that working with peace-building and peace-keeping is more cost-efficient than peace-making, which a well-known fact in the international community. Another factor are the highly visible results from donor investments in post-conflict countries.
Turn the old arguments around
At the wrap-up of the seminar, there was a consensus that not enough is being done in peace-keeping, that while wars are less deadly, they are still deadly enough.
There is also fear of that conflict will rise from the impact climate change will have on the environment together with the growing populations’ escalating needs for resources.
“Yemen will run out of water in ten years and its population is steadily growing. If you have ecological stress in a geographical location, and two groups competing over that resource, there may well be a conflict not involving the state” said Andrew Mack
But there are things that work. The report points at a reduction in civil war. It is important to recognize these positive trends, and build upon them. The argument to use war and fear as a arguments and drivers to increase budgets for developments and peace keeping is old. Instead we should use the argument that development andpeace-keeping works, because it clearly does. Petra Tötterman-Andorff concluded:
“It is encouraging that the report emphasizes peace instead of war. Pray the devil back to hell. Important to look at the positive developments. Participation is also really important. Civil society working together with friendly states."
